Sunday, December 17, 2006

What We Know So Far

Thanks to our exclusive Defend The Rock Stat Matrix these are some things we know so far about our men playing b-ball in the cream & crimson. Of course be sure to check out the matrix for much more info.


Rebounds:
In wins IU averages +9.6 rebounds over their opponents (19.6/g). In losses averages +6.6 rebounds. Not too shabby. So far Kelvin Sampson's strategy of turning his Hoosiers into rebounding machines seems to be working. Never doubt the Bubble Drill


Points:
Well, the good news in wins on average IU is DOMINATING. On the whole outscoring opponents an average of 24.4 points. But of course the bad news, in losses IU is losing by an average of 4.3 points. Now, this is a small sample size (3 games), but all three of those losses have been simply devestating. On the whole IU is scoring 68.6 points a game while allowing 58.6. If IU scores over 70 it'll be a win, mark it down.


Turnovers:
Pretty simple here, an average of -3.8 TO's per win, and an average of +1.3 per loss. The weird part, in 4 of IU wins they've turned the ball over 18 times. That's simply bad news, and we're not going to win many more games if they keep that up. The overall average turnovers per game for IU is a little lower at 15.3.....


3 Pointers:
IU basketball is always about the threes, how are they doing this year? 7.4 3s per win, and 3.6 per loss. One way to put it is to say in our losses we're scoring about 12 less points in our wins. Obviously overall that's not the case, but put that way it does show how big a part three pointers play in our offense.


A Tale of Two Teams? Not So Fast:
Averages in Wins: 84 Points, 39.8 Rebounds, 15 Turnovers, 7.4 3's
Averages in Losses:53.3 Points, 38.6 Rebounds, 15.6 Turnovers , 3.6's

As you can see the biggest problem is the disparity between scoring in wins and losses. As I add more stats to the matrix, such as FG%, 3PT FG%, per w/l things should become much clearer. But as it stands now, IU simply needs to score to win (as obvious as that is). Sampson's preaching of defense and rebounding is working, unfortunately we're also seening what goes with Sampson's system....low scoring by BOTH teams.

As I said earlier, if IU can eek out 70 or more points in any given game I have very little doubt that they will win the game. But they HAVE to hold onto the ball, turnovers are going to hit this team hard if nothing is done to correct the issue.